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Join Fitch for the upcoming Outlook panel: Credit Outlook 2025 Private Credit
Rating downgrades and default rates for Fitch’s North America Privately Monitored Ratings (PMR) portfolio could stabilize in 2025. Modest interest rate relief and steady earnings growth will support credit profiles. Continued capital market strength could lead to repricing or exit opportunities for sponsors. Risks include interest rates that remain high relative to history, and a potential labor shortage that would affect this service-heavy portfolio.
The same macro factors are likely to drive a stabilization and gradual decline in default rates within the private credit segment. We expect default rates to remain elevated in the beginning of 2025 but gradually decline as the year progresses. The default rate in Fitch’s PMR portfolio ended 3Q24 at 7%, up from around 3% at the start of the year.
Latest news
Fitch Ratings Completes Peer Review of 13 US BDCs
Fitch Ratings has completed a peer review of 13 U.S. business development companies (BDCs). We have affirmed the Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) on 12 issuers and completed one Review No Action. The Rating Outlooks are Negative for three BDCs and Stable for 10 BDCs in this peer group.
Sponsored middle market leverage falls to its lowest level since 1Q23
Total leverage on sponsored middle market transactions declined to 4.40x in 2Q26 from 4.51x in 1Q26, reaching its lowest level…
Deals and refinancing offset market shocks as LevFin issuance tops 2025 levels
Leveraged finance issuance has remained resilient despite technology-sector volatility and geopolitical turmoil. Combined leveraged loan and high-yield bond volume reached…