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Business of Private Credit: Safety, Not Size
Even the best credit managers have loans that go bad. What separates them from everyone else is how they bring history and experience to working those problems out.
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August 5, 2026 
PE middle-market pooled IRR and TVPI by TEV size bucket
The lower end of the middle market has generated better returns on average and does not come with significantly more left-tail risk
PE middle-market TVPI and DPI by fund vintage
Going forward, we expect that returns will be driven by disciplined buying and operational value creation, rather than…
Share of PE middle-market fund count by size bucket
LPs facing constrained distributions are concentrating commitments with a shorter list of established, brand-name managers…
Share of PE middle-market exit value by sector
Sector composition tilted hard toward B2B in Q1. B2B accounted for 52.9% of middle-market exit value, up from 38.2% in full-year 2025…
PE IRR Distribution by TEV Size Bucket
Pooled IRRs for recent middle-market vintages have compressed alongside the broader cycle.
Share of PE middle-market exit value by type
Middle-market exit activity carried through into 2026, with a Q1 total exit value of $32 billion across 218 transactions, up 14% and 1.5% YoY, respectively.
US PE middle-market deal activity by quarter
The middle market got off to its strongest start since 2021, even as its share of PE deal value dropped to the lowest level on record.
Middle market vs. megafund PE IRR dispersion (2018–2021 vintages)
For much of the past two decades, PE delivered a consistent premium over public markets that justified its illiquidity and fee load—a proposition that is now under pressure.
PE AUM forecast ($T)
By the end of 2030, we forecast global PE AUM to reach $8.8 trillion in our base case, with a plausible range of $7.6 trillion in our downside case to $10.2 trillion in our upside case.
Specialist versus generalist PE capital raised ($B)
Fundraising consolidation is here to stay, and it will change the way managers go about raising new funds in the coming years.
Continuation-fund-related exit count
For Q1 2026, we tracked 38 exits through continuation funds totaling $10.8 billion when including estimates for nondisclosed transactions.
PE exit activity by quarter
US PE exit activity pulled back in Q1 2026, as the many headwinds made it difficult to maintain the momentum seen in H2 2025.
Interval and tender offer fund net flows ($B) by strategy
Evergreen fund assets essentially doubled from 2022 to 2025.
US PE EV/EBITDA multiples
Global buyout valuations have held steady through the opening months of 2026…
PE take-private deal activity
PE take-private activity was robust in Q1 2026, as value rose to $64.3 billion, up 13.0% QoQ and 53.3% YoY, even as deal count fell to 13 from 14 last quarter.
HALO versus software as a share of PE deal value ($B)
The hottest debate in public markets right now is not whether AI will disrupt software but how much, how fast, and who is left standing.