What is a loan worth? At its core, a loan's value is driven by two forces: credit risk (the likelihood the borrower repays) and market risk (the rate and spread that determines the investors’ demand to hold it). With today's macro noise, questions about the accuracy of value, or “marks,” have grown louder. Yet loans in the heavily scrutinized BDC portfolios have been trading essentially at par (see our Chart of the Week) even against a backdrop of mounting headwinds. That is, in some ways, a reassuring data point. But it masks a more complicated story about what happens when retail capital meets an asset class it does not fully understand.
Quote of the Week
"If the cycle turns and these tourists, rather than working out loans, just start selling them at below the economic value — what happens to the rest of the market?” – Mickey Bhatia, Citi (Bloomberg).
Featuring Charts
Chart of the Week: The Bigger Picture
Software became less of a sector and more of a defining strategy — particularly among larger funds. Source:
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Chart of the Week: Value Proposition
Despite the noise, ~89% of the KBRA universe is currently marked above 95 — a sign of valuation and credit stability. Source: KBRA DLD Default Research, as of Apr. 28, 2026.
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Chart of the Week: At Any Rate
Default metrics aren’t created equal. How a default is defined and measured can tell very different stories — so knowing what’s behind the number matters as much as the number itself. Source: BofA Global Research.
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Chart of the Week: Queue Here
Investor education is becoming critical as quarterly redemption limits are being tested. Source: Data is derived from publicly available information, including U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filings.
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Chart of the Week: Ex Uno, Plures
Unlike the US, private credit began as one entity and morphed into many states. Source: Apollo Outlook For Public and Private Markets (April 2026)
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Chart of the Week: Different Strokes
Core and LMM portfolio overlap has remained relatively stable over the past decade. Source: Company filings and Raymond James research
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Features
Octus: Private Credit & Deal Origination Insights – 5/11/2026
Spreads Widened Large Cap Deals, Were Relatively Flat for Middle Market Deals If you are interested in the full report, please email kim.giancaspro@octus.com While the year typically starts quietly, increased BDC redemptions, AI disruption concerns, and a sluggish M&A environment hindered deal flow…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here...
Middle Market & Private Credit – 5/11/2026
U.S. Private Credit and Middle Market Performance Monitor: 1Q26 Click here to learn more. Private Credit Default Rates The PMR default rate based solely on bankruptcies, liquidations, and out-of-court restructurings was 1.9%…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here...
Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis – 5/11/2026
Technology loans move higher but continue to trade at a discount to the broader secondary market Technology loans continue to trade at a discount to the broader secondary market, as investors have reassessed their exposure to the software sector amid fears that AI could disrupt companies in this sector…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member?
The Pulse of Private Equity – 5/11/2026
PE exit activity by quarter Download PitchBook’s Report here. US PE exit activity pulled back in Q1 2026, as the many headwinds made it difficult to maintain the momentum seen in H2 2025…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here...
PDI Picks – 5/11/2026
Can senior debt’s strong performance be maintained? The IRRs delivered by the strategy since 2017 have been impressive. The asset class is coming under scrutiny but will aim to prove the doubters wrong. It’s been a good time to be investing in senior debt, as indicated by our proprietary chart showing top quartile, bottom quartile…
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Beginning in July 2022 The Lead Left published a series of articles on credit market. This report consolidates those articles.
Cov-lite trends Inflation & rising interest rates – LIBOR to SOFR transition Mega-tranche uni trend ESG takes center stage Login to view interactive report and download PDF version. … Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here Related posts: 2H 2021 Midyear Outlook Report State of the Capital Markets – Fourth Quarter 2016 Review and
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