According to Merriam-Webster, apophenia, or mistaken pattern recognition, is “the tendency to perceive a connection or meaningful pattern between unrelated or random things." We see this happen all the time in capital markets.
After the GFC, the usual suspects were rounded up. While sub-prime mortgages were clearly the culprits, leveraged loans and CLOs were also included, though neither contributed to it. The charges – rapid growth, “complexity” and proximity to the banking system – have today put a bullseye around private credit. But the evidence tells a different story...
Quote of the Week
"I do not see excess leverage in the private credit world. I just don’t see the transmission mechanism for the rest of the economy.” – Jay Clayton, US Attorney, Southern District of New York (FT).
Featuring Charts
Chart of the Week: Setting Expectations
Despite the headlines, direct lending makes up a much smaller share of household and business debt than mortgages did at the height of the GFC. Source: Apollo
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Chart of the Week: The Bigger Picture
Software became less of a sector and more of a defining strategy — particularly among larger funds. Source: BDC collateral
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Chart of the Week: Value Proposition
Despite the noise, ~89% of the KBRA universe is currently marked above 95 — a sign of valuation and credit stability. Source: KBRA DLD Default Research, as of Apr. 28, 2026.
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Chart of the Week: At Any Rate
Default metrics aren’t created equal. How a default is defined and measured can tell very different stories — so knowing what’s behind the number matters as much as the number itself. Source: BofA Global Research.
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Chart of the Week: Queue Here
Investor education is becoming critical as quarterly redemption limits are being tested. Source: Data is derived from publicly available information, including U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filings.
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Chart of the Week: Ex Uno, Plures
Unlike the US, private credit began as one entity and morphed into many states. Source: Apollo Outlook For Public and Private Markets (April 2026)
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Features
Octus: Private Credit & Deal Origination Insights – 5/18/2026
The Growing Footprint of Private Equity Activities in European Lending Sponsor-backed activity is reshaping European credit markets, with direct lending serving as the primary engine of growth…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here...
Bloomberg: Leveraged Lending Insights – 5/18/2026
Retail Investors Return to Loan Funds Amid Shifting Rate Expectations Click here to access Bloomberg’s Global Leveraged Loan Index Report Retail investors have steadily returned to leveraged loan funds following two consecutive months of net redemptions. The Invesco Senior Loan ETF (BKLN) recorded $359m in inflows this month through May 19, building on $528m of…
Middle Market & Private Credit – 5/18/2026
U.S. Private Credit and Middle Market Performance Monitor: 1Q26 Click here to learn more. Fitch’s Privately Monitored Ratings Portfolio – 1Q26 In the charts above, Fitch presents aggregate data for issuers in its PMR portfolio. Fitch privately rates these issuers on behalf of asset managers. 2025F figures remain forecast, as audited financials for privately rated…
The Pulse of Private Equity – 5/18/2026
Continuation-fund-related exit count Download PitchBook’s Report here. For Q1 2026, we tracked 38 exits through continuation funds totaling $10.8 billion when including estimates for nondisclosed transactions…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here...
Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis – 5/18/2026
BDC share price to net asset value remains under pressure BDC valuations remain under pressure, driven by negative headlines around private credit and fears around the potetial impact of AI on software companies, a sector in which many BDCs have sizeable stakes…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here...
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Beginning in July 2022 The Lead Left published a series of articles on credit market. This report consolidates those articles.
Cov-lite trends Inflation & rising interest rates – LIBOR to SOFR transition Mega-tranche uni trend ESG takes center stage Login to view interactive report and download PDF version. … Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here Related posts: 2H 2021 Midyear Outlook Report State of the Capital Markets – Fourth Quarter 2016 Review and
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