According to Merriam-Webster, apophenia, or mistaken pattern recognition, is “the tendency to perceive a connection or meaningful pattern between unrelated or random things." We see this happen all the time in capital markets.
After the GFC, the usual suspects were rounded up. While sub-prime mortgages were clearly the culprits, leveraged loans and CLOs were also included, though neither contributed to it. The charges – rapid growth, “complexity” and proximity to the banking system – have today put a bullseye around private credit. But the evidence tells a different story...
Quote of the Week
"I do not see excess leverage in the private credit world. I just don’t see the transmission mechanism for the rest of the economy.” – Jay Clayton, US Attorney, Southern District of New York (FT).
Featuring Charts
Chart of the Week: Setting Expectations
Despite the headlines, direct lending makes up a much smaller share of household and business debt than mortgages did at the height of the GFC. Source: Apollo
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Chart of the Week: The Bigger Picture
Software became less of a sector and more of a defining strategy — particularly among larger funds. Source: BDC collateral
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Chart of the Week: Value Proposition
Despite the noise, ~89% of the KBRA universe is currently marked above 95 — a sign of valuation and credit stability. Source: KBRA DLD Default Research, as of Apr. 28, 2026.
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Chart of the Week: At Any Rate
Default metrics aren’t created equal. How a default is defined and measured can tell very different stories — so knowing what’s behind the number matters as much as the number itself. Source: BofA Global Research.
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Chart of the Week: Queue Here
Investor education is becoming critical as quarterly redemption limits are being tested. Source: Data is derived from publicly available information, including U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filings.
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Chart of the Week: Ex Uno, Plures
Unlike the US, private credit began as one entity and morphed into many states. Source: Apollo Outlook For Public and Private Markets (April 2026)
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Features
Middle Market & Private Credit – 5/25/2026
U.S. Private Credit and Middle Market Performance Monitor: 1Q26 Click here to learn more. Fitch’s Privately Monitored Ratings Portfolio – 1Q26 Fitch recorded 19 downgrades and three upgrades in 1Q26, continuing the trend of downgrades outpacing upgrades…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here...
The Pulse of Private Equity – 5/25/2026
Specialist versus generalist PE capital raised ($B) Download PitchBook’s Report here. Fundraising consolidation is here to stay, and it will change the way managers go about raising new funds in the coming years…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here...
Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis – 5/25/2026
Institutional loan repricings return in May, with issuers wielding most of the negotiating power With more than 40% of secondary loans trading above par despite a 96-handled average bid, the repricing trade has come bustling back for issuers able enough and ready to go…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here...
PDI Picks – 5/25/2026
North America remains investor favourite Despite talk of Europe becoming the new fundraising magnet, the data is not showing any significant change in LP appetite. There has been much written about the attractions of European private credit of late. Moreover, the region’s perceived strengths are frequently compared with the challenges facing aspects of the North…
Octus: Private Credit & Deal Origination Insights – 5/18/2026
The Growing Footprint of Private Equity Activities in European Lending Sponsor-backed activity is reshaping European credit markets, with direct lending serving as the primary engine of growth…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here...
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Beginning in July 2022 The Lead Left published a series of articles on credit market. This report consolidates those articles.
Cov-lite trends Inflation & rising interest rates – LIBOR to SOFR transition Mega-tranche uni trend ESG takes center stage Login to view interactive report and download PDF version. … Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here Related posts: 2H 2021 Midyear Outlook Report State of the Capital Markets – Fourth Quarter 2016 Review and
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