What’s so special about the middle market? In a world where every conversation seems to revolve around AI, mega-software M&A, and data center infrastructure, it is easy to overlook the arena that creates 30% of private sector employment and 33% of revenue growth. But as investors grapple with AI transition risks, elevated leverage, and weaker structures in large cap portfolios, the core middle market is getting second and third looks.
Pest control companies, veterinary clinics, and HVAC services aren’t featured on many prime-time business TV programs or conference agendas. But “old economy” sectors are commanding more attention from private equity buyers and their direct lending partners who specialize in core middle market companies...
Quote of the Week
"When we have to debate who is going to win [on AI] and who is going to lose, we want to be conservative.” - Joe McCurdy, Guggenheim Investments (WSJ).
Featuring Charts
Chart of the Week: More Than Meets the Eye
The sectors you pick determine everything that follows. Source: Cliffwater Direct Lending Index
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Chart of the Week: Closer Than You Think
Turns out, the marks agree more often than not. Source: KBRA
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Chart of the Week: The Clear Choice
Transparency and track records matter most to private credit investors. Source: Coalition Greenwich, Private Credit Market Structure Survey
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Chart of the Week: Success, Not Overnight
Private credit’s growth story, over a decade old, is still evolving. Source: Preqin.
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Chart of the Week: Open for Business
When public credit markets close, private credit absorbs the shock. Source: FT, Hinze, Rintamaki, Mondini, Steffen.
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Chart of the Week: Setting Expectations
Despite the headlines, direct lending makes up a much smaller share of household and business debt than mortgages did at the height of the GFC. Source: Apollo
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Features
Bloomberg: Leveraged Lending Insights – 6/22/2026
US Leveraged Loan Issuance Holds Steady in June The US leveraged loan market has continued to see steady levels of issuance, with approximately $69.1b priced through June 24 with an additional $17.4b expected to price before month-end. Following May’s $105.9b figure, current issuance dynamics have shifted significantly from March and April, when volumes totaled just…
Octus: Private Credit & Deal Origination Insights – 6/22/2026
46% of Traded BDCs Had Over 5% of Nonaccrual Exposure (at Cost Value) in Q1’26, up From 31% in Q4’25 To access the full Q1’26 nonaccrual report, please click HERE or email kim.giancaspro@octus.com… Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here...
Middle Market & Private Credit – 6/22/2026
BDC Valuations Weaken in 1Q26 as Leverage Rises and Dividend Pressure Builds Click here to learn more. Business development company (BDC) portfolio valuations came under pressure in 1Q26 as market spreads widened, software company valuations declined, and non-accruals increased, according to a new report from Fitch Ratings…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in
The Pulse of Private Equity – 6/22/2026
Share of PE middle-market exit value by type Download PitchBook’s Report here. Middle-market exit activity carried through into 2026, with a Q1 total exit value of $32 billion across 218 transactions, up 14% and 1.5% YoY, respectively…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here...
Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis – 6/22/2026
Average US TLB pricing tightens amid flush of repricings and refinancings Amid a limited new money leveraged loans pipeline, refinancings and repricings have dominated 2Q26 issuance, pushing average term loan spreads down in the process…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here...
Middle Market Deal Terms at a Glance
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Beginning in July 2022 The Lead Left published a series of articles on credit market. This report consolidates those articles.
Cov-lite trends Inflation & rising interest rates – LIBOR to SOFR transition Mega-tranche uni trend ESG takes center stage Login to view interactive report and download PDF version. … Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here Related posts: 2H 2021 Midyear Outlook Report State of the Capital Markets – Fourth Quarter 2016 Review and
Beginning in September 2021 The Lead Left published a series of articles on supply chain. This report consolidates those articles.
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