What is a loan worth? At its core, a loan's value is driven by two forces: credit risk, or the likelihood the borrower repays, and market risk, the rate and spread that determines the investors’ demand to hold it. With today's macro noise, questions about the accuracy of value, or “marks”, have grown louder. Yet loans in the heavily scrutinized BDC portfolios have been trading essentially at par (see our Chart of the Week) even against a backdrop of mounting headwinds. That is, in some ways, a reassuring data point. But it masks a more complicated story about what happens when retail capital meets an asset class it does not fully understand...
Quote of the Week
"If the cycle turns and these tourists, rather than working out loans, just start selling them at below the economic value — what happens to the rest of the market?” – Mickey Bhatia, Citi (Bloomberg).
Featuring Charts
Chart of the Week: Value Proposition
Despite the noise, ~89% of the KBRA universe is currently marked above 95 — a sign of valuation and credit stability. Source: KBRA DLD Default Research, as of Apr. 28, 2026.
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Chart of the Week: At Any Rate
Default metrics aren’t created equal. How a default is defined and measured can tell very different stories — so knowing what’s behind the number matters as much as the number itself. Source: BofA Global Research.
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Chart of the Week: Queue Here
Investor education is becoming critical as quarterly redemption limits are being tested. Source: Data is derived from publicly available information, including U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filings.
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Chart of the Week: Ex Uno, Plures
Unlike the US, private credit began as one entity and morphed into many states. Source: Apollo Outlook For Public and Private Markets (April 2026)
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Chart of the Week: Different Strokes
Core and LMM portfolio overlap has remained relatively stable over the past decade. Source: Company filings and Raymond James research
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Chart of the Week: Leverage Takeover
Middle market buyout financings increasingly dominated by direct lenders. Source: LSEG LPC. Middle Market LBO volume.
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Features
Bloomberg: Leveraged Lending Insights – 5/4/2026
US Leveraged Loans Post Largest Monthly Gain Since Last May The Bloomberg US Leveraged Loan Index (Ticker: LOAN) returned 1.18% to investors in April, marking the largest monthly gain since last May’s 1.53% return. It brings the year-to-date return to 0.61%. Average secondary market prices on US leveraged loans have steadily climbed to 95.49 on…
Octus: Private Credit & Deal Origination Insights – 5/4/2026
Cross-BDC Analysis Shows 73 bps of Additional Nonaccrual Exposure at Cost (2.18% Adjusted vs. 1.45% Reported) For access to the full analysis and underlying data please visit here or reach out to kim.giancaspro@octus.com… Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here...
Middle Market & Private Credit – 5/4/2026
U.S. Banks Increase Private Credit Disclosures Amid Continued Scrutiny Click here to learn more. U.S. bank disclosures regarding private credit exposures improved in the first quarter of 2026, although inconsistencies relative to regulatory reporting remain an area for improvement, according to Fitch Ratings. Several large banks provided additional detail on lending to business development companies…
The Pulse of Private Equity – 5/4/2026
Interval and tender offer fund net flows ($B) by strategy Download PitchBook’s Report here. Evergreen fund assets essentially doubled from 2022 to 2025. Except for real estate, growth was broad-based across all other strategies…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here...
Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis – 5/4/2026
US CLO issuance totaled US$6.2bn in April, the lowest since December 2023 New-issue US CLO volume amounted to US$6.2bn in April via 14 deals, down from US$18.1bn raised from 38 deals during March…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here...
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Beginning in July 2022 The Lead Left published a series of articles on credit market. This report consolidates those articles.
Cov-lite trends Inflation & rising interest rates – LIBOR to SOFR transition Mega-tranche uni trend ESG takes center stage Login to view interactive report and download PDF version. … Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here Related posts: 2H 2021 Midyear Outlook Report State of the Capital Markets – Fourth Quarter 2016 Review and
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