Ellen Zentner on rates, risk and resilience – A 2026 macroeconomic outlook

Today, we are pleased to welcome Ellen Beeson Zentner, Chief Economic Strategist and Global Head of Thematic and Macro Investing at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. In her role, Ellen combines her passion for economics with a talent for guiding investors through turbulent times. She is also a member of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, where she advises the U.S. Treasury Department on the economy and debt management, and was recently recognized as one of Barron’s 100 Most Influential Women in Finance.

In this episode, Ellen walks us through the biggest lessons from 2025, the Year of the Tariff, and what has shifted as we head into 2026. We dig into the economic indicators she watches most closely, from the labor market to whether people are dining out. We explore what the AI boom really means for asset allocators, which adjacent sectors may offer smarter entry points than chasing AI directly, and how to think about where we are in the cycle when markets move on a dime. We close with Ellen’s outlook on rates, housing, and what she sees as the biggest potential upside surprise of the year.

Note: This podcast was recorded on January 20, 2026. Views expressed reflect opinions at the time of recording and may not represent current perspectives.

[5297245]