TheLeadLeft

Welcome to the Precession!

News reached us last week of the demise of the Choco Taco. Or maybe not. Cousin to the Klondike Bar, this chocolate-nut-waffle-taco-vanilla-fudge-ice-cream novelty seemed to be yet another victim of supply-chain issues… ▶︎ Read Aug 1 2022 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart of the Week: here (by U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysisrence Board, Bloomberg) (Any “forward-looking” […]

The Pulse of Private Equity – 8/8/2022

Midyear grading Download PitchBook’s Report here. Every December, PitchBook makes a slew of predictions about industry trends in the upcoming year. That’s been a tricky gambit since 2019. In successive years, the industry has navigated a global pandemic, a skyscraper of a recovery, and a slowdown driven by unavoidable macro trends. Last December, the prevailing mood…

Debtwire Middle-Market – 8/8/2022

Leveraged loan and high yield bond secondary prices move up from recent lows Source: Debtwire Par, Markit, ICE BofA US HY Index To open the year, loans were bid at an average price of 97.78, with approximately 20% of loans bid in the par-plus range. As inflation numbers started coming in hot, and as the…

Private Debt Intelligence - 8/8/2022

Private debt fundraising in North America on track for record The number of private debt funds in North America has yet to reach pandemic or pre-pandemic levels, but the trend of mega funds continues. In 2022 year to date, 55 private debt funds closed in North America. Even if that number doubles in the next…

The Great Unwind (Third of a Series)

Our characterization of the current economic picture as a “precession” took into account the second quarter’s negative GDP data. But last week’s “blowout” labor report for July – 528,000 jobs added – combined with unemployment edging down to 3.5%, hardly depict the prelude to a recession. The number of jobs now stands where it did…