This week we conclude our series on the private capital outlook for the year ahead with our fifth theme: “A breath of fresh air: Investing and fundraising in 2025.”
As private capital’s virtuous cycle sets in motion, 2025 should present plenty of attractive investment opportunities across the capital stack. For senior debt investors, the direct lending climate will continue to be constructive as the reduced but somewhat higher for longer rate environment persists. We expect public debt spreads to continue compressing, leading to the relative risk-reward and income rewards increasingly skewing towards private debt.
Financing conditions should support higher leverage and a closer alignment between buyer and seller price expectations, which will accelerate M&A flow...
“Inflation has now been around these rates for some time and clearly isn’t coming down decisively any more.” – Paul Ashworth, chief economist, North America, Capital Economics.
Featuring Charts
Chart of the Week: Still Growing
The strength of the US economy since Covid is expected to continue this year. Source: iCapital, Bloomberg.
Read More
Chart of the Week: Up the Middle
Total middle market loan volume for 2024 at $51.3 billion was the highest in eight years. Source: Fitch Ratings, Lev Fin Insights.
Read More
Chart of the Week: Wide Dispersion
BSL defaults at 3Q 2024 were more than six times those in private credit. Source: Proskauer (Private Credit), Fitch Ratings (BSL), as of September 30, 2024.
Read More
Chart of the Week: Privates First Class
Direct lending’s share of buyout financings now dwarfs that of the bank market. Source: LSEG LPC
Read More
Chart of the Week: Reversal of Fortune
Three quarters of M&A activity in 2024 approached full-year volume for 2023. Source: PitchBook
Read More
Chart of the Week: Labor on a Roll
December’s job adds topped expectations, suggesting slower Fed rate cuts. Source: WSJ, The Daily Shot
Read More
Subscribe Now!
Join the leading voice of the middle market. Try us free for 30 days.
Click here to view the Newsletter sample.
What is the Lead Left?
- One-stop source for deals and data
- Market trend commentary and analysis
- Exclusive interviews with thought leaders
View Article By
Features
Bloomberg: Leveraged Lending Insights – 2/17/2025
US Leveraged Loan Launches Taper from January Highs Leveraged loan launches have slowed from the record-breaking pace set in January when approximately $204.8b was brought to market for an all-time high. Through February 19th, $72.7b worth of deals have been marketed to investors, marking a significant slowdown month-over month. While February launches have struggled to…
The Pulse of Private Equity – 2/17/2025
US PE EV/EBITDA multiples Download PitchBook’s Report here. Going forward, as deal volumes expand—especially among PE owners selling to other PE firms—a recent uptrend in EBITDA multiples may be short-lived…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here...
Private Debt Intelligence – 2/17/2025
Private exit volumes level out Read more in Preqin’s ‘Deal Flow Monitor: Outlook 2025’. Higher interest rates have hampered the private equity exit environment over the past two years…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here...
Middle Market & Private Credit – 2/17/2025
U.S. Banks’ Direct Exposure to Private Credit Growing; Poses Limited Risks for Now Click here to learn more. Join Fitch for the upcoming webinar: Private Credit: Growing Interconnectedness and New Product Risks Recent regulatory data offers new insights into U.S. banks’ direct exposure to the private credit sector. As of Dec. 31, 2024, U.S. banks…
Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis – 2/17/2025
Weighed by repricings, term loan B spreads begin to diverge between single-Bs and double-Bs, although relative value holds steady After new-issue clearing yields tightened for three consecutive months, averaging 7.3% in January and marking another fresh monthly low since May ’22, the institutional loan market may finally be showing signs of fatigue from repricings…. Subscribe
Middle Market Deal Terms at a Glance
provided by
Beginning in July 2022 The Lead Left published a series of articles on credit market. This report consolidates those articles.
Cov-lite trends Inflation & rising interest rates – LIBOR to SOFR transition Mega-tranche uni trend ESG takes center stage Login to view interactive report and download PDF version. … Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here Related posts: 2H 2021 Midyear Outlook Report State of the Capital Markets – Fourth Quarter 2016 Review and
Beginning in September 2021 The Lead Left published a series of articles on supply chain. This report consolidates those articles.
Our Content Partners
