The surprise of 2025’s post-Liberation Day risk-on dynamic across markets has established a pattern we expect to continue well into next year. As we discussed last week, the implementation of rate cuts, the slowing of inflation and the persistence of economic growth has supported dealmakers and their financing partners.
Nevertheless, attention is focused on transactions closed during the highest rate period from 2022 – 2024. It had been forewarned that defaults should be expected emerging from that time. And so now every story of a troubled deal triggers warnings of a coming credit crisis...
“A data dependent Fed would come to the conclusion that it should not cut interest rates next week.” – Torsten Slok, chief economist, Apollo Global Management. (The Daily Spark).
Featuring Charts
Chart of the Week: Easing Down
Defaults for the overall leveraged loan market are at lowest point since 2023. Source: The Daily Shot, PitchBook/LCD, Morningstar LSTA US Leveraged Loan Index
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Chart of the Week: Prime Cut
A low probability just weeks ago, chances for a 25 bp cut now seem likely. Source: The Daily Shot
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Chart of the Week: Lower for Longer
Direct lending defaults lead credit categories in low defaults, though headed higher. Source: KBRA DLD Default Research
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Chart of the Week: Higher for Longer
Larger LBO financings in direct lending are sporting increasingly higher leverage. Source: KBRA DLD Research, 3-month rolling averages
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Chart of the Week: Gone Fishing
On November 5th, the 2025 government shutdown became the longest in US history. Source: The Daily Shot
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Chart of the Week: Equity and the Emirates
UAE’s shift from oil-centric to a broader industrial economy will propel PE investments. Source: imarc
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Features
The Pulse of Private Equity – 12/8/2025
Share of funds larger than predecessor: top 10% of funds by size Download PitchBook’s Report here. For this analysis, we broke apart the largest 10% of funds raised each year from the remaining 90%…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here...
Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis – 12/8/2025
Dueling bridge loans backing Netflix Inc. and Paramount bids for Warner Bros Discovery largest on record for US BSL market On the heels of Friday’s announcement that Netflix Inc. had won a bid to acquire Warner Bros Discovery’s TV and film studios as well as its streaming division forUS$83bn (including debt and equity)… Subscribe to
Bloomberg: Leveraged Lending Insights – 12/1/2025
US Leveraged Loan Issuance Tapers Off in November November’s $53.6b of US institutional leveraged loan issuance was down $9.7b, or 15.3%, from the previous month’s $63.3b, marking a decline of 55% from the same month a year ago and the slowest month of issuance since May’s $33b…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in
Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis – 12/1/2025
The record setting continues as BDC AUM reaches US$534bn Investors continue to allocate more capital to BDCs and in turn the upward growth trajectory shows no sign of slowing, with BDC assets under management (AUM) climbing to a record US$534bn in 3Q25…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here...
Middle Market & Private Credit – 12/1/2025
US Life Insurer Investment Risk Rising from Private Letter Ratings Click here to learn more. Join Fitch for the upcoming Outlook panel: 2026 Leveraged Finance Credit Outlook Webinar The rapid growth of private letter ratings (PLRs) raises risks for U.S. life insurers as it coincides with the industry’s move toward more complex, opaque investments untested…
Middle Market Deal Terms at a Glance
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Beginning in July 2022 The Lead Left published a series of articles on credit market. This report consolidates those articles.
Cov-lite trends Inflation & rising interest rates – LIBOR to SOFR transition Mega-tranche uni trend ESG takes center stage Login to view interactive report and download PDF version. … Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here Related posts: 2H 2021 Midyear Outlook Report State of the Capital Markets – Fourth Quarter 2016 Review and
Beginning in September 2021 The Lead Left published a series of articles on supply chain. This report consolidates those articles.
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