Deal-making is poised to rebound, thanks to lower interest rates, a strong economy, and an overall favorable macro environment. So why does the media persist in predicting a gloomy outlook for private equity?

There are certainly less optimistic data about the industry. Fundraising, for example, has slowed. According to PitchBook, PE firms raised $320 billion last year (through September 30). This is a far cry from the $650 billion three years ago, making 2025 one of the worst fundraising vintages in ten years. The number of funds created has plummeted as well.

How about exits? In 2025 an estimated 1,250 companies were sold by private equity firms. That’s down from 1,450 in 2022 and from a high-water mark of 1,950 in 2021. US PE inventory now stands at nearly 13,000 portfolio companies, of which 30% are at least seven years into their hold period.