It is a measure of the impact the GFC had on regulators, financial policy makers, and the capital markets that faith in systemic liquidity is now a foundational principle.

We saw that confidence further underlined as the economy emerged intact from the global pandemic. And supported as well by the patience shown by financial markets as central banks pursued their aggressive battle against inflation. The reward has so far been the softest of landings, a possibility dismissed by many economists not long ago.

And how about that inverted yield curve?

We invoke these predictions not to cast aside all fears, but to illustrate the challenge of underestimating how capital, like water, fills a vacuum regardless of financial circumstances. Worries about the leveraged loan maturity wall fall into this category.