One of many challenges of the investing climate is reading the economic signs. Is inflation coming down or going up? Is the labor market strengthening or weakening? Are we in a recession, or just slow growth… ▶︎ Read Oct 10 2022 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart of the Week: here (by Berenberg, Haver Analytics) (Any “forward-looking” […]
The world is changing from one where risk-taking was rewarded, to one where it is punished if not appropriately managed. Can you be rewarded while managing today’s level of greater risk? The Fed’s withdrawal of capital and rate hikes plus liquid credit dislocation has opened a window of opportunity… ▶︎ Read Oct 3 2022 newsletter: […]
Public capital allocation is governed by fast cash, so when money flows out of retail funds, it’s a headwind to deal activity. Private capital has long-term, locked-up funds. But in this period of uncertainty, managers are taking longer looks at risks versus opportunities… ▶︎ Read Sept 26 2022 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart of the Week: […]
Supply chain issues aren’t limited to bikes and baby formula. As the Fed withdraws liquidity from the banking system and investor cash exits public credit, delivering capital to traditional buyouts and M&A is a challenge… ▶︎ Read Sept 19 2022 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart of the Week: here (by Preqin – North America data) (Any […]
For over a decade, the tide of capital has flowed mostly in one direction: into markets. That’s because since the Great Recession the Fed has kept interest rates low. Public credit, both loans and bonds, benefited from this support… ▶︎ Read Sept 12 2022 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart of the Week: here (by Leveraged Commentary […]
We all have a few sad childhood memories. One of ours was coming home for Thanksgiving freshman year to discover our younger brother had traded away our baseball card collection. We gave him a shoebox full of Topps stars that summer. He traded to a friend for a set of Hot Wheels® cars… ▶︎ Read […]
“The easy money has been made; the harder money is left.” That’s how one experienced asset manager characterized the current investing market. It’s fairly typical of trading approaches after a period of low prices… ▶︎ Read Aug 15 2022 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart of the Week: here (by StockCharts.com) (Any “forward-looking” information may include, among […]
Last week we called the economy a “precession.” But July’s “blowout” labor report – 528,000 jobs added – hardly seems like the prelude to a recession. But a hot job market means higher wages for the Fed to consider before September’s meeting. Offsetting that, though, was July’s lower CPI numbers (8.5%, down from June’s 9.1%)… […]
News reached us last week of the demise of the Choco Taco. Or maybe not. Cousin to the Klondike Bar, this chocolate-nut-waffle-taco-vanilla-fudge-ice-cream novelty seemed to be yet another victim of supply-chain issues… ▶︎ Read Aug 1 2022 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart of the Week: here (by U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysisrence Board, Bloomberg) (Any “forward-looking” […]
Oscar Wilde once wrote, “When the gods wants to punish you, they answer your prayers.” Risk assets like high-yield bonds have enjoyed a Fed back-stop. Issuers pounced on record low coupons, and investors suffered through low returns… ▶︎ Read July 25 2022 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart of the Week: here (by Nuveen, The Conference Board, […]