TheLeadLeft

Of Rates and Recessions (Third of a Series)

This week we continue unpacking the rich content our three top economists provided for last week’s exclusive webinar [link]. Here are some key takeaways. Nominal GDP remains relatively high in the US, with greater growth reflected in higher corporate revenues and earnings. But real GDP is zero. 3Q is likely positive, thanks to a narrowing…

PDI Picks – 10/24/2022

Investors gravitate to Asia-Pacific In the face of the global headwinds, this is one part of the world that appears to be looking relatively attractive. Since beginning to gather momentum in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, fundraising for Asia-Pacific private debt reached a record high last year of $11 billion. Although this is…

Of Rates and Recessions

One of many challenges of the investing climate is reading the economic signs. Is inflation coming down or going up? Is the labor market strengthening or weakening? Are we in a recession, or just slow growth… ▶︎ Read Oct 10 2022 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart of the Week: here (by Berenberg, Haver Analytics) (Any “forward-looking” […]

Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis - 10/17/2022

U.S. Primary yields soared in 3Q22 In 3Q22, first-lien institutional yields skyrocketed to levels not seen since the credit crisis. The average primary yield, assuming a 3-year term to repayment on first-lien institutional term loan Bs was 9.45% in 3Q22, up over 300bp from 2Q22 levels. While spreads widened, they only accounted for 19bp of…

The Pulse of Private Equity – 10/17/2022

Familiarity a plus Download PitchBook’s Report here. PitchBook’s Q3 2022 US PE Breakdown, available for free, crystallizes a trend we’ve been hearing about in recent months. Even by historical standards, fundraising is lopsided in favor of existing GP managers. So far this year, almost half (48%) of fundraising dollars have gone to established firms—in this case,…

Debtwire Middle-Market – 10/17/2022

Buyout activity disappoints following historic year Source: Debtwire Par Record leveraged loan and high-yield bond issuance in 2021 supported buyout activity, with loans racking up USD 166.9bn and bonds supporting USD 27.6bn of buyout issuance for the year. However, it’s a different story in 2022, with those figures falling to USD 84.3bn and USD 13.8bn,…