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Business of Private Credit: Coming Home
Much attention has been paid to the suitability of Matt Damon in the lead role as the wily Odysseus in this summer’s Christopher Nolan blockbuster.
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August 12, 2026 
Unconquered Territory
With most of the map still unexplored, there’s room for a sequel.
Multiples on PE buyouts
Median net debt/EBITDA across the market stood at 4.7x in 2025, and although it bottomed near 4x in 2023 before recovering, it remains below the 5.2x reached in 2021…
Multiples on PE buyouts
This quarter marks our integration of SPI by StepStone as the primary source for US buyout valuation metrics for the PE Breakdown.
PE middle-market pooled IRR and TVPI by TEV size bucket
The lower end of the middle market has generated better returns on average and does not come with significantly more left-tail risk
Riding the Wave
Momentum, more often than conviction, drives the biggest deals.
PE middle-market TVPI and DPI by fund vintage
Going forward, we expect that returns will be driven by disciplined buying and operational value creation, rather than…
Q2 European direct lending activity up 9%
Despite the geopolitical and macroeconomic events of the first half of the year creating a volatile environment, the European private credit market continues to demonstrate robust resilience.
Share of PE middle-market fund count by size bucket
LPs facing constrained distributions are concentrating commitments with a shorter list of established, brand-name managers…
Middle market vs. megafund PE IRR dispersion (2018–2021 vintages)
For much of the past two decades, PE delivered a consistent premium over public markets that justified its illiquidity and fee load—a proposition that is now under pressure.
PE AUM forecast ($T)
By the end of 2030, we forecast global PE AUM to reach $8.8 trillion in our base case, with a plausible range of $7.6 trillion in our downside case to $10.2 trillion in our upside case.
Specialist versus generalist PE capital raised ($B)
Fundraising consolidation is here to stay, and it will change the way managers go about raising new funds in the coming years.
Continuation-fund-related exit count
For Q1 2026, we tracked 38 exits through continuation funds totaling $10.8 billion when including estimates for nondisclosed transactions.
PE exit activity by quarter
US PE exit activity pulled back in Q1 2026, as the many headwinds made it difficult to maintain the momentum seen in H2 2025.
David Robinson on private credit redemption fears, liquidity traps, and what retail investors need to know
A conversation with David Robinson, James and Gail Vander Weide Professor of Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business.
US PE EV/EBITDA multiples
Global buyout valuations have held steady through the opening months of 2026…
Business of Private Credit: Playing to Your Strengths
“Show me a great credit, and I’ll show you a great sponsor behind it.”
For this series, we’ve focused on how core middle market lenders underwrite a borrower.