In conversations with dozens of institutional investors over the past several months, consistent themes recur. First, there’s the sense of continually being bombarded by unexpected bad news rocking markets… ▶︎ Read Mar 27 2023 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart of the Week: here (by Lincoln Proprietary Database (Interest Coverage Ratio = Ebitda – Capex/Actual LTM Interest)) […]
As we continue our series examining the effects of interest rates and a potential recession on private credit, we now need to add bank failures. Economic and market indicators – Treasury spreads, the forward curve, asset prices, to name a few… ▶︎ Read Mar 20 2023 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart of the Week: here (by […]
The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank gave flashbacks to those of us who lived through the financial crisis. It also raised concerns about the underlying health of bank balance sheets overall… ▶︎ Read Mar 13 2023 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart of the Week: here (by The Daily Shot) (Any “forward-looking” information may […]
Our friends at Lincoln International produce a superb report on private market insights from their valuations and opinions group. Derived from their database of hundreds of borrowers from portfolio valuations, it provides helpful guidance… ▶︎ Read Mar 6 2023 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart of the Week: here (by Lincoln Proprietary Database) (Any “forward-looking” information may […]
This past week we visited our clients and friends in Tokyo. The last time we did, three months before Covid, Japan’s GDP had ended modestly down 0.2%. During 2020 it plunged 4.3%; about twice as sluggish as the US… ▶︎ Read Feb 27 2023 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart of the Week: here (by The Daily […]
Our family winter break in Turks and Caicos last week was highlighted by two discoveries. First, neither of our daughters are particularly interested in water activities. And second, their all-inclusive meal mainstays, despite a world of delicacies, were chicken nuggets and cotton candy… ▶︎ Read Feb 20 2023 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart of the Week: […]
Over the past twelve months, as Fed rate hikes have taken hold, much attention has been paid to the denominator effect. This is the impact on investors’ portfolios as liquid asset prices have fallen, creating larger-than-anticipated allocations in alternatives…. ▶︎ Read Feb 13 2023 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart of the Week: here (by Nuveen, Bloomberg, […]
After a deep-dive into the various elements of the M&A market last year, a panel of five top bankers told 650 registrants of our exclusive Lead Left Presents webinar that conditions for 2023 are beginning with “wait and see.”… ▶︎ Read Feb 6 2023 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart of the Week: here (by Leveraged Commentary […]
After a deep-dive into the various elements of the M&A market last year, a panel of five top bankers told 650 registrants of our exclusive Lead Left Presents webinar that conditions for 2023 are beginning with “wait and see.”… ▶︎ Read Jan 30 2023 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart of the Week: here (by WSJ, Jefferies, […]
There’s no better lens through which to examine the effects of the current economic environment than US middle market M&A activity. A wide range of indicators – volume, valuations, financing and sector rotation – were flashing in the wake of rate hikes, volatility, and economic headwinds… ▶︎ Read Jan 23 2023 newsletter: here ▶︎ Chart […]