Media

Letter From Milan

When it comes to private capital, institutional investors in Italy have an increasing variety of options. Exposure to US private equity, for example. And while specialized strategies have emerged (e.g. venture capital), the focus on established buyout funds has been prevailing. Private equity issuance has been particularly active. For the first quarter of 2024, even […]

Back to School

Our fondness for inflection points suggests there are many to consider. First, the economy. Despite many misgivings over the past eight months, US GDP growth has been remarkably solid. Second quarter numbers were revised upward from 2.8% to 3% in large part due to strong consumer spending. The third quarter is still hanging tough with […]

Why so sensitive?

As we head to our end of summer break, let’s reflect on three things that will not change. First, rate expectations are headed lower, beginning next month; likely to include at least one more cut before the end of the year. It’s also clear that pattern will continue into 2025. Second, the economy will continue […]

Letter from London (Second of Two Parts)

These partnerships are helping to drive the growth of the DC market, which is expected to rise to about £1 trillion by 2030 (according to PLSA). The largest of these plans is estimated to be committing to between 10%-30% in private/semi liquid market strategies. NEST, the largest DC master trust in the UK has stated […]

Letter from London (First of a Series)

These partnerships are helping to drive the growth of the DC market, which is expected to rise to about £1 trillion by 2030 (according to PLSA). The largest of these plans is estimated to be committing to between 10%-30% in private/semi liquid market strategies. NEST, the largest DC master trust in the UK has stated […]

CLO Awakening (Second of Two Parts)

From a risk perspective, CLO defaults are rare; no AAA tranche in either US or European CLOs has ever defaulted. The historical default rate for all CLO tranches is just 0.11%, and none occurred post-GFC until 2021. Then only after portfolios had been partially weakened from loan credit quality issues emerging during the Covid-19 pandemic. […]

CLO Awakening (Part One of Two)

In a note last week, our content partners at PitchBook LCD highlighted “the high level of CLO paydowns and deal calls, which has pushed more than $50 billion back into investors’ hands — and could add up to $90 billion more.” These paydowns totaled over $52 billion so far this year, more than the combined […]

"A Slow Sort of Country"

Media coverage at the time trumpeted how banks were fighting to regain lost share to direct lenders. It also warned that this competition would hurt private credit returns by forcing those managers to cut their spreads to keep good assets from going away. Another measure of non-bank success has been the ratio of new deals […]

Fast and Furious (Second of Two Parts)

As we discussed in our Best Practices in Private Credit series, portfolio construction is everything. With little way out short of refinancings or company sales, how these loans perform will reflect directly on investor returns, not how they trade. This puts the onus on portfolio managers to select not just the highest-quality issuers, but the […]

Fast and Furious (Part One of Two)

The Magnificent Seven, representing 40% of the Nasdaq 100, is an extreme example of industry concentration. The market cap of Nvidia alone was $3 trillion at one point, vying with Apple and Microsoft as the world’s most valuable company. So much for diversification. Great when tailwinds are supporting that sector, but when they’re not you […]