What remains to be seen are the longer-term, structural impacts of the distribution dilemma. We expect that investors who pull back from the asset class will miss out – as we have seen play out in other market disruptions. Out of current market complexity will emerge clear winners and losers. For LPs in particular, those […]
Capabilities live within a culture. The right mindset is required to react effectively to disruption. Unfortunately, many organizations lack the sense of urgency. This works against them. Why? Because extinction is slow. It takes decades to lose market share. With C-suites and employees consumed with day-to-day work, strategic decisions get postponed. A timely question remains: […]
What are the biggest surprises for investors this year? Our informal polling among top credit managers produced five answers. First, muted M&A activity, despite improved conditions for financing. Second, is the strength of the economy. Though rates have been high compared the zero-gravity era that ended in 2022, consumers keep spending and companies keep hiring. […]
Experience matters. Leaders with years of navigating through many economic, business and market cycles have learned how to shake the shock and ride the wave of change without losing their balance. Yes, the risks of falling are greater. And failures can have consequences beyond the local or regional, as CrowdStrike demonstrated. But so are the […]
Consistent with remarks from conference panelists, pension plans are looking at more niche private credit strategies to achieve diversified return profiles. Examples include secondaries, NAV financing, ABL, distressed, and real estate debt. In part, this is because the sheer number of managers that name private credit as their focus makes it challenging to navigate. ▶︎ […]
Does this lower-for-longer outlook mean the end of the Golden Era for private credit investors? All-in spreads have been at all-time high, but that high-tide lifted a number of boats. Bringing corporate and high-yield bond yields down will increase the relative attractiveness of middle market debt. Easing of financing costs will boost M&A and improve […]
Long-term investors, particularly those in private capital, emphasize fundamentals. They ask how top managers deal with uncertainty. What economic signs do they watch? How will higher rates affect portfolios and deal sourcing? Will a recession result in worsening default and loss rates? What examples of successful workouts can you show to demonstrate the ability to […]
When it comes to private capital, institutional investors in Italy have an increasing variety of options. Exposure to US private equity, for example. And while specialized strategies have emerged (e.g. venture capital), the focus on established buyout funds has been prevailing. Private equity issuance has been particularly active. For the first quarter of 2024, even […]
Our fondness for inflection points suggests there are many to consider. First, the economy. Despite many misgivings over the past eight months, US GDP growth has been remarkably solid. Second quarter numbers were revised upward from 2.8% to 3% in large part due to strong consumer spending. The third quarter is still hanging tough with […]
As we head to our end of summer break, let’s reflect on three things that will not change. First, rate expectations are headed lower, beginning next month; likely to include at least one more cut before the end of the year. It’s also clear that pattern will continue into 2025. Second, the economy will continue […]