John Maynard Keynes said we live in a world of irreducible uncertainty, while neoclassical economists state that perfect information is available and people make rational expectations. The events of the last decade suggest that the former school of thought has more credence, though “freshwater” economists would no doubt disagree.

Uncertainty of the political variety looks set to be the overriding theme for 2017, regardless of whether one thinks the market is driven by rational agents or not. A new US president promising radical policy changes; elections in France, Germany and the Netherlands...

It’s that time of year when analysts dust off their crystal balls and make predictions for the next 12 months. In December 2015 not many were forecasting that Britain would vote to leave the EU, and even fewer were betting on a Donald Trump presidential victory, so investors would be wise to treat such missives with caution. Political risk is a capricious beast, even for the most seasoned market observers.

But, caveats aside, there seems to be a consensus forming that 2017 will be tough year for one particular asset class: emerging market debt. A Trump presidency will usher in a new era of lower taxes – especially for high earners – and expansionary fiscal policy...

When a company announces that it is increasing the amount paid out to shareholders, it is not typically greeted with enthusiasm by credit investors. But Glencore is no ordinary company in the CDS world, and its announcement on December 1 wasn’t a standard chance in financial policy.

The Swiss firm said that it would be resuming dividend payments after a hiatus of more than a year. Back in September 2015, Glencore was under enormous pressure as it groaned under the weight of its high debt burden and struggled to cope with falling commodity prices. Five-year CDS spreads widened from 350bps to 850bps in the space of two weeks...

The European Commission announced on November 23 a banking reform package that will result in changes to the CRR and CRD IV capital requirement legislation, as well as changes to the BRRD and SRMR legislation relating to recovery and resolution of failing financial institutions. The package is very broad, so we won’t attempt to comment on all of the measures.

But one change under the BRRD caught our eye, as it will have a material impact on how the bond market – and possibly the CDS market - trades. The EC proposes a harmonised framework for bondholder hierarchy...

We noted last month that realised volatility in the European investment grade CDS market, as measured by the Markit VolX index, was at its lowest for two years. By the end of October, volatility had dipped to 18%, which was the lowest level since the heady days of June 2007. A number of future events were mooted that had the potential to trigger market uncertainty, including next month’s Italian referendum.

But a victory for Donald Trump in the US presidential election was viewed by most as a highly unlikely occurrence. Spreads rallied in the run up to the vote, with the Markit CDX.NA.IG tightening from...

Credit investors, whether in cash or synthetics, often welcome corporate restructurings by distressed firms. Job cuts, rationalisation of operations and, in particular, asset sales are usually regarded as bondholder friendly actions.

But this 'wasnt the reaction when Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS) announced plans to restructure its ailing business. The Italian bank said that it would reduce jobs by 2,500 – cutting 10% of its staff costs - and close 500 of its 2,000 branches over the next three years. MPS also declared that it would sell its payments processing unit for €520 million...

There are no shortage of factors that have troubled market participants this year: Brexit; US monetary policy direction; fragility in European banks; oil prices. All of these issues, and others, have caused credit spreads to widen at various intervals in 2016.

But the last few weeks have seen calmness return to the credit markets. The VolX Europe, which shows the realised volatility in the Markit iTraxx Europe index, hit 26.4% this week, which is the lowest level for almost two
years...