Commentary

Three Myths of Private Market Valuations (First of Three Parts)

In our special series last month on why private debt valuations should not be viewed through the same lens as those of public debt (“Glasses Half-Full”), we dug into the various characteristics of illiquid loans that make them particularly attractive in the current market. Now our friends at Lincoln International have published a timely report…

Letter from Singapore (Second of Two Parts)

Besides private credit, there’s growing volume in Singapore around private equity, real estate, and even venture capital. And investors there are researching specialty finance areas such as royalty financings, asset-backed, aviation, and legal settlement. Fundraising for APAC private debt amounted to $14 billion in 2022, a rather modest figure compared to US and Europe, but…

Letter from Singapore (Part One)

In our second visit to Asia this month, we again found both variety and vitality of interest among managers and investors in private markets. Two stellar industry conferences in Singapore, the PDI’s APAC Forum and Asian Private Banker’s Alternatives in Focus, headlined speakers from top global and regional shops. Attendees were, at PDI’s event, leading…

Glasses Half Full (Last of a Series)

In conversations with dozens of institutional investors over the past several months, consistent themes recur. First, there’s the sense of continually being bombarded by unexpected bad news rocking markets. Then having few clues before each Fed meeting what the central bank will do with rates. Finally, there’s the worry that too-high rates will send the…

Glasses Half Full (Second of a Series)

As we continue our series examining the effects of higher interest rates and a potential recession on private credit, we also now need to throw in the impact of recent bank failures. It’s clear all sorts of economic and market indicators – the Treasury curve, Treasury spreads, stock prices, to name a few – are…

A Pause to Reflect

Many of us who lived through the financial crisis of 2008-2009 had flashbacks to that era. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank also raised concerns about the underlying health of bank balance sheets, particularly for the smaller firms. We were reminded of how customer confidence is everything for depository institutions. Banks exist…

Glasses Half Full (First of a Series)

Our friends at Lincoln International produce a superb report on private market insights from their valuations and opinions group. Derived from their database of hundreds of borrowers as part of their quarterly analyses for managers’ portfolio valuations, this data provides helpful guidance on a host of issues such as loan prices, purchase price multiples, and…

Letter From Tokyo

This past week we visited our clients and friends in Japan. The last time we did, three months before Covid, that nation’s GDP had ended modestly down 0.2%. During 2020 it plunged 4.3%; about twice as sluggish as the US. Japan’s economy rebounded strongly in 2021 to 2.1% and slowed to 1.1% last year. Projections…

Warmer Waters

Our family winter break in Turks and Caicos last week was highlighted by two discoveries. First, neither of our daughters are particularly interested in water activities. And second, their all-inclusive meal mainstays, despite a world of delicacies, were chicken nuggets and cotton candy. We say this, not to disparage young girls’ dietary or athletic choices….

The Numerator Effect

Over the past twelve months, as Fed rate hikes have taken hold, much attention has been paid to the denominator effect. This is the impact on investors’ portfolios as liquid asset prices have fallen, creating larger-than-anticipated allocations in other areas. For many the over-sized shares are coming in alternatives. Institutional investors set limits based on…