Someone once said, “A vacation is what you take when you no longer can take what you’ve been taking.” We reflected on this, returning post-Labor Day this week to a market where investors have been taking a lot so far in 2024. What will the next few months bring? Our fondness for inflection points suggests…
For some months the performance of public markets, both fixed income and equities, brooked few doubters. As one strategist put it, “Stocks have become a buy high, sell higher asset class.” All that changed last week. July’s labor report showed the US economy added only 114k jobs, down sharply from June’s level of 179k. Unemployment…
For a long-time practitioner and educator in the private capital space, there’s nothing like engaging with sophisticated investors digging deep into nuances of the asset class. In London and the Midlands, these discussions centered around such questions as: 1. How will growth of private markets impact appetite in direct contribution plans and semi-liquid strategies? 2….
Last week we visited our UK colleagues, clients and friends for a number of discussions around private capital. These conversations echoed similar sentiments from investors at home, with many funds building on already existing positions in both private credit and private equity. We heard about strategies, not related to timing, but rather more sophisticated approaches…
As the leveraged loan market woke up this past January, as confidence in the economy and rate expectations grew, so the CLO market has rebounded. Not just in the US, as we detailed last week, but in Europe as well. Our friends at Creditflux highlighted this phenomenon, quoting one leading manager as saying: “Given the…
The first half of 2024 kept us busy tracking volume in the newly energized BSL market. Remarkable, but not unexpected, was its ability with fresh capital to refinance higher-cost existing deals away from the direct lenders. Left unexplained more fully was the driver of this activity. This special series explores how collateralized loan obligations (CLOs)…
“Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!” In Through the Looking Glass, the Red Queen’s response to Alice’s frustration in running hard yet not getting anywhere mirrors…
The 60/40 allocation model for investing has taken some hits since the Fed began raising rates over two years ago. 2022 saw a sea of red ink for liquid strategies – both the “60” and the “40” – with improved returns last year and so far in 2024. Sophisticated institutional investors long ago adopted the…
This week we attended the 40th annual conference of the Florida Public Pension Trustees Association in Orlando. Attendees included municipal pension board members, plan sponsors and administrators. In Monday’s keynote presentation we highlighted various macroeconomic factors investors face today. While researching for our talk, we came across this interesting fact (tip of the hat to…
Back in October 2020 we introduced the concept of how supply and demand imbalances in private markets affects credit quality and performance. Too much capital chasing too few deals leads to overly aggressive terms – great for issuers, but for investors not so much. In the immediate aftermath of Covid, conditions were quite different than…