Challenging financing conditions and macroeconomic disruptions have ushered in a period of lackluster M&A activity the last few years. Sellers are reluctant to realize investments at what are perceived to be depressed valuation multiples. Buyers meanwhile are wary of overpaying and unwilling to meet sellers at multiples of a bygone era. The resulting valuation gap…
Having focused this year mostly on the effects of rates and the economy on private credit, it’s time to turn our attention to private equity. One of the more surprising aspects of conversations around this topic is how PE has taken a back seat to PC, particularly regarding growth and performance of the asset class….
While the expected pace of Fed cuts has slowed, nothing suggests a change in direction. This course suggests a re-assessment of which strategies deserve allocations. Who will be the winners and losers? How does our high velocity environment complicate these decisions? One speaker at the GEF spoke about how managers find themselves increasingly behind the…
Investors are challenged today with so much data and distraction coming at them from every angle. This makes it tough to see the big picture, which looks pretty good. After a dramatic 50 bp chop to the Fed funds rate barely two weeks ago, the mood has swung around once again. Now it’s more like,“What’s…
The 7th Annual Greenwich Economic Forum this week brought together dozens of CEOs, CIOs, and top financial executives of all stripes for thought-provoking conversations. Topics included trends in asset management, global geopolitics, financial technology, and financial regulation. Tough to find more sophisticated and diverse thought-leadership outside a small town in Switzerland or the Beverly Hills…
Our friends at Bloomberg hit the market last week with a startling headline: “Private Credit Faces Worst Reckoning Since 2008.” Just in time for us to speak to hundreds of institutional investors at conferences in Traverse City, Michigan, and Toronto about private credit’s virtues. We did find evidence of solid risk management. A recent Fitch…
One of the unalloyed joys of our job these days is around Fed meetings. We’ve known for four years this moment would arrive, but the timing and extent of the rate cut kept analysts guessing. And despite countless experts weighing in until the last minute, the Fed’s “big move” caught many by surprise. Not that…
We admit to a weakness for sports metaphors, particularly baseball. Perhaps it’s how happenings in the national pastime so often mirror life. And the capital markets. Our latest pearl of wisdom comes from Carlos Mendoza. After his star shortstop Francisco Lindor ended a slump with a game-winning home run, the NY Mets manager was asked…
When it comes to private capital, institutional investors in Italy have an increasing variety of options. Exposure to US private equity, for example. And while specialized strategies have emerged (e.g. venture capital), the focus on established buyout funds has been prevailing. Private equity issuance has been particularly active. For the first quarter of 2024, even…
Someone once said, “A vacation is what you take when you no longer can take what you’ve been taking.” We reflected on this, returning post-Labor Day this week to a market where investors have been taking a lot so far in 2024. What will the next few months bring? Our fondness for inflection points suggests…