Getting our heads back into markets, we reflect this week on the shape of public equities and fixed income. The S&P 500 has gained about 10% year-to-date, less than half of the 20% return for the comparable period in 2024. Similar figures for the DJIA are 7% and 10.5%, respectively. Ten-year Treasurys bottomed out a…
What is coming through clearly in our conversations with credit professionals is that we are in a risk-on world. Somewhat delayed from earlier in the year, thanks to tariffs, but the strength and direction is unmistakable. This sentiment was amplified in our discussions about the US leveraged loan market in Octus Webinar: H1 2025: “How…
What’s the state of the US leveraged loan market, and what’s the outlook for the rest of the year? Those were the among the questions posed to your correspondent and three other panelists at Octus Webinar: H1 2025: “How Private Credit and Banks Traversed the Tariff Storm to a Brighter Second Half.” We’ve discussed here…
Our recent survey of 164 private equity executives revealed improved confidence in both the M&A environment over the next twelve months as well as the exit activity emerging from that. Digging further, we see several interesting dynamics about their financing partners and the current strategies employed to maximize deployment and valuations. As we’ve noted in…
In response to our Reflections on Wimbledon two weeks ago, a long-time Lead Left reader informed us that the famed tournament is expanding. While we had opined “no one is building new grass courts,” he learned that the All-England Club has purchased an adjacent 100-acre golf course. “Subject to zoning approvals,” he wrote, “plans include…
Life happens at inflection points. This goes for capital markets as well. Whether changes in interest rates (high to low), or economic cycles (growth to recession), being alert to those subtle shifts allows astute asset managers to lean into investment strategies more effectively. The challenge today is unpredictable trade policies have created false signals, particularly…
As a long-time observer and amateur practitioner of the game, we enjoy the season when tennis arrives at the hallowed grounds of Wimbledon. It also reminds us how capital markets, like the stately British stadium, evolve beyond decades of tradition into more sophisticated and timely versions. There’s the stark contrast between players, accustomed to hard…
Markets happen when you’re making other plans. This was true again last week as confrontation with Iran, instead of caving US markets, supported them. Equity indices approached record highs, and the US dollar strengthened, at least for a time. We expect inflation and rate uncertainty will continue to weigh on investors. Nevertheless, April’s “sell America”…
We spoke recently to a C-suite executive of a global specialty chemicals company about how tariffs are affecting his business. He outlined his strategy to expand production in the US, but also how these plans were being stymied by the cost of importing equipment. “There are some things today, cranes for example, that are only…
Those who talk about risks in private credit should also keep in mind that investors always look at relative risk. For example, Moody’s analysts observe that without a sustained downturn since the GFC, “private credit has not been truly tested, only quizzed.” Fair enough. But how did public credit fare over that period? As the…