What’s the state of the US leveraged loan market, and what’s the outlook for the rest of the yeaWhat is coming through clearly in our conversations with credit professionals is that we are in a risk-on world. Somewhat delayed from earlier in the year, thanks to tariffs, but the strength and direction is unmistakable. This sentiment was amplified in our discussions about the US leveraged loan market in Octus Webinar: H1 2025: “How Private Credit and Banks Traversed the Tariff Storm to a Brighter Second Half.”
And while confidence reigns across public and private markets, how managers operate in each channel in this environment is instructive. For example, primary deal terms in broadly syndicated loans are set by secondary prices, not the other way around. Syndicate desks look at where comparable loans are trading, then set new deal spreads accordingly...
“The private markets in their current form haven’t been tested, and they will be tested when there’s a recession.” – Emmanuel Roman, chief executive officer, Pimco (FT).
Featuring Charts
Chart of the Week: All-Weather Buyouts
While direct lending was subdued with rate liftoff, it’s recovered despite tariff noise. Source: DLD KBRA
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Chart of the Week: Loans Unleashed
July set record monthly leveraged loan volume; eight of top ten highest in last two years. Source: PitchBook, Bloomberg
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Chart of the Week: Behind the Curve
Private equity fundraising through early June is slowest pace in over a decade. Source: PitchBook
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Chart of the Week: Exit Ramp
The number of PE exits slumped 1Q after last year’s steady improvement. Source: Preqin Pro
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Chart of the Week: Slowing the Slowdown
Notwithstanding tariffs, economists now view the chances of a recession fading. Source: WSJ Surveys of Economists
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Chart of the Week: Wealth Effects
The share of wealth assets dedicated to private credit is on the rise. Source: FT, Oliver Wyman
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Middle Market & Private Credit – 8/11/2025
U.S. Private Credit and Middle Market Performance Monitor: 2Q25 Click here to learn more. Fitch’s Privately Monitored Ratings Portfolio, Rating Activity The issuer-weighted TTM default rate for PMRs rose to 9.5% in 2Q25 from 7.8% in 1Q25. Fitch recorded 28 unique defaults for the TTM period, up from 23 in 1Q25. This is the highest…
The Pulse of Private Equity – 8/11/2025
Median PE company holding times (years) Download PitchBook’s Report here. The data for median hold times for PE-backed companies in the US continues its downtrend, though it remains above historical norms…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here...
Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis – 8/11/2025
LevFin books new issuance record in July thanks to loan repricings, while growing M&A business shouldn’t be overlooked US leveraged finance issuance topped US$236bn in July, eking a new all-time monthly high for the business…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here...
PDI Picks – 8/11/2025
Senior debt loses its dominance The first half of this year saw investor commitments more widely dispersed in the asset class. In last week’s column, we examined the first-half global private credit fundraising figures and found that the total raised was consistent with the five-year H1 average, even though consistency was not a word associated…
Bloomberg: Leveraged Lending Insights – 8/4/2025
August Leveraged Loan Launches, by Week The typical “August slowdown” for the leveraged-loan market has yet to materialize, according to data compiled by Bloomberg…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here...
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Beginning in July 2022 The Lead Left published a series of articles on credit market. This report consolidates those articles.
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