What’s the state of the US leveraged loan market, and what’s the outlook for the rest of the year? Those were the among the questions posed to your correspondent and three other panelists at Octus Webinar: H1 2025: “How Private Credit and Banks Traversed the Tariff Storm to a Brighter Second Half.”
We’ve discussed here at length the implications and effects of tariffs on the credit market. More interesting for readers was the panel discussion of what has been a full recovery from April’s Liberation Day. At least one measure of this confidence was July’s US leveraged loan activity of $222 billion, the largest monthly number ever recorded. As our Chart of the Week highlights, eight of the top ten busiest months came since January of 2024, according to Bloomberg...
“Credit complacency is a dominant theme across our investor meetings.” – Matthew Mish, head of credit strategy, UBS (Bloomberg).
Featuring Charts
Chart of the Week: All-Weather Buyouts
While direct lending was subdued with rate liftoff, it’s recovered despite tariff noise. Source: DLD KBRA
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Chart of the Week: Loans Unleashed
July set record monthly leveraged loan volume; eight of top ten highest in last two years. Source: PitchBook, Bloomberg
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Chart of the Week: Behind the Curve
Private equity fundraising through early June is slowest pace in over a decade. Source: PitchBook
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Chart of the Week: Exit Ramp
The number of PE exits slumped 1Q after last year’s steady improvement. Source: Preqin Pro
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Chart of the Week: Slowing the Slowdown
Notwithstanding tariffs, economists now view the chances of a recession fading. Source: WSJ Surveys of Economists
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Chart of the Week: Wealth Effects
The share of wealth assets dedicated to private credit is on the rise. Source: FT, Oliver Wyman
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Bloomberg: Leveraged Lending Insights – 8/4/2025
August Leveraged Loan Launches, by Week The typical “August slowdown” for the leveraged-loan market has yet to materialize, according to data compiled by Bloomberg…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here...
Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis – 8/4/2025
Total leverage on sponsored middle market deals ticked up in the 2Q 2025, driven by higher senior leverage Total leverage on sponsored middle market deals ticked up to 4.56x on average in 2Q25, driven by higher senior leverage…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here...
The Pulse of Private Equity – 8/4/2025
Global buyout EV/EBITDA multiples Download PitchBook’s Report here. The EV/EBITDA multiple for PE buyouts stood at 11.7x for the TTM period ended June 30, 2025. This is comfortably above the recent trough of 10.3x in 2023, yet below the 12.3x registered in 2024…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here...
PDI Picks – 8/4/2025
A fundraising half of ups and downs Those raising capital for private debt still face challenging conditions despite Q1 have raised hopes of a revival. Private debt asset class professionals could be forgiven for scratching their heads when examining the first-half 2025 global private debt fundraising data published by Private Debt Investor…. Subscribe to Read
Bloomberg: Leveraged Lending Insights – 7/28/2025
July Sets Record for US Leveraged Loan Launches The US leveraged loan market has set a record in terms of monthly launch volume, with July deal flow exceeding $218.8b. It was the busiest month for launches by both volume and deal count (153) since Bloomberg began tracking the data in 2013, shattering the previous record…
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