Markets happen when you’re making other plans. This was true again last week as confrontation with Iran, instead of caving US markets, supported them. Equity indices approached record highs, and the US dollar strengthened, at least for a time. We expect inflation and rate uncertainty will continue to weigh on investors.
Nevertheless, April’s “sell America” motif has shifted. “We didn’t sell anything,” one experienced investor told FT’s Katie Martin. “The world is overweight US for a reason.” That again puts the spotlight on what private markets can do in an ever-changing macro landscape.
At the bank-replacement end of the market, large asset managers see convergence as a trend. One example is the confluence of channels: retail and institutional. Then there’s the blurring of assets: public and private. And finally, as distribution from managers to investors becomes more sophisticated, differences in asset liquidity should narrow as well...
“Markets can take some comfort in that we’ve, in a sense, weathered some of the storm.” – Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment strategist, PNC Asset Management (WSJ).
Featuring Charts
Chart of the Week: Secondary Effects
Since Liberation Day, leveraged loan trading prices have slowly moved higher. Source: Bloomberg US Leveraged Loan Index
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Chart of the Week: The Comeback Kid
Since the 2021 peak, global M&A activity has been on the rebound. Source: LSEG
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Chart of the Week: Midcaps Motor On
Through Covid and rate hikes, middle market loan issuance has tracked up. Source: LevFin Insights, a Fitch Solutions company
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Chart of the Week: Mission Unstoppable
Private credit AUM expected to continue steady growth, driven by direct lending. Source: Fitch Ratings, Preqin
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Chart of the Week: Rising Sun
Japan’s long-dated bond yields have moved up sharply so far in 2025. Source: The Daily Shot
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Chart of the Week: Premium Yields
Spreads for middle market CLOs are distributed higher than their BSL counterparts. Source: S&P Global Ratings
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Features
Middle Market & Private Credit – 6/30/2025
Smaller, Non-Systemic U.S. Banks Most Concentrated to Non-Bank Lending Click here to learn more. A relatively small percentage of U.S. banks provide loans to non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs), according to analysis of new regulatory data for the entire banking industry by Fitch Ratings. Around 13% or 576 FDIC banks reported balances of either NBFI loans…
Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis – 6/30/2025
Supported by increase in high grade financings, 2Q25 US M&A loan volume up 64% y-o-y; LBO activity declines Brushing aside tariff woes, inflation concerns and geopolitical fears, US lenders raised US$228.5bn of new loan assets in 2Q25, a 29% jump compared to the year ago period, to push 1H25 totals to nearly US$407bn (compared to…
PDI Picks – 6/30/2025
Scrutiny of the bank/fund intersection Lines of credit from banks to credit vehicles have grown at an exponential rate, warranting regulatory attention. As our most recent LP Perspectives study showed (see chart), the attitude of limited partners towards fund finance is – in more than half of cases – negative. But what do regulators make…
Bloomberg: Leveraged Lending Insights – 6/23/2025
Leveraged loan prices continue to climb in secondary market Average secondary market prices on US Leveraged loans reached 96.44 on June 25th, the highest level since March 17th according to the Bloomberg US Leveraged Loan Index. So far in June, the index has returned 0.51%, bringing the year-to-date figure to 2.47%…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready
Middle Market & Private Credit – 6/23/2025
Private Credit’s Growing Complexity Untested Through Market Cycles Click here to download report. What are Key Trends to Watch for BDCs? Fitch’s 2025 sector outlook for BDCs remains ‘deteriorating’ as continued spread pressure and additional non-accruals will likely weaken earnings and dividend coverage for BDCs in 2025…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in
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Beginning in July 2022 The Lead Left published a series of articles on credit market. This report consolidates those articles.
Cov-lite trends Inflation & rising interest rates – LIBOR to SOFR transition Mega-tranche uni trend ESG takes center stage Login to view interactive report and download PDF version. … Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here Related posts: 2H 2021 Midyear Outlook Report State of the Capital Markets – Fourth Quarter 2016 Review and
Beginning in September 2021 The Lead Left published a series of articles on supply chain. This report consolidates those articles.
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