Life happens at inflection points. This goes for capital markets as well. Whether changes in interest rates (high to low), or economic cycles (growth to recession), being alert to those subtle shifts allows astute asset managers to lean into investment strategies more effectively.
The challenge today is unpredictable trade policies have created false signals, particularly in liquid markets where traders can pivot on a dime. Headline risk increases the whipsaw effect of rapidly changing prices in a confused environment. “As good as our stats are, they just weren't made for these kinds of very large moves in policy that cause a knee-jerk reaction,” KPMG’s chief economist, Diane Swonk, reports. “It makes it even harder to read the tea leaves.”
Private capital, with fewer facets exposed to macro dynamics, has been a boon to institutional and wealth investors for price and valuation stability. But visibility on what exactly moves the asset class is less public and...
“Despite numerous headwinds, the US economy is proving stubbornly resilient.” – Chad Moutray, chief economist, National Restaurant Association (WSJ).
Featuring Charts
Chart of the Week: Exit Ramp
The number of PE exits slumped 1Q after last year’s steady improvement. Source: Preqin Pro
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Chart of the Week: Slowing the Slowdown
Notwithstanding tariffs, economists now view the chances of a recession fading. Source: WSJ Surveys of Economists
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Chart of the Week: Wealth Effects
The share of wealth assets dedicated to private credit is on the rise. Source: FT, Oliver Wyman
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Chart of the Week: Secondary Effects
Since Liberation Day, leveraged loan trading prices have slowly moved higher. Source: Bloomberg US Leveraged Loan Index
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Chart of the Week: The Comeback Kid
Since the 2021 peak, global M&A activity has been on the rebound. Source: LSEG
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Chart of the Week: Midcaps Motor On
Through Covid and rate hikes, middle market loan issuance has tracked up. Source: LevFin Insights, a Fitch Solutions company
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Features
Middle Market & Private Credit – 7/21/2025
Private Credit, Public Debate Fitch Ratings has completed a peer review of 12 U.S. business development companies (BDCs). Fitch has affirmed the Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) on 10 issuers and completed two Review – No Actions. The Rating Outlooks for Oaktree Specialty Lending Corp. and Blackrock TCP Capital Corp. remain Negative, while all other…
The Pulse of Private Equity – 7/21/2025
Carveouts/divestitures as a share of all PE buyouts by quarter Download PitchBook’s Report here. Carve-out transactions are running at 10.6% of all buyout deals in 2025, which is comfortably above the five-year average of 8.7% and last year’s 10.1%…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here...
Middle Market & Private Credit – 7/14/2025
Private Credit, Public Debate Richard Hunter, Chief Risk Officer at Fitch Ratings, recently published an op-ed sharing his insights on private credit. He addressed frequent questions we receive, including: Does Private Mean Opaque?… Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here...
Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis – 7/14/2025
2Q25 Total US direct lending LBO volume down over 47% quarter over quarter Talk of tariffs, inflation fears and anticipation of a congressional show down over the Trump administration’s “big, beautiful bill” contributed to heightened market uncertainty throughout much of 2Q25 and the direct lender loan market was not immune to the fall out…. Subscribe
Bloomberg: Leveraged Lending Insights – 7/14/2025
Leveraged Loan Launches Accelerate in July Click here to access Bloomberg’s US Leveraged Finance Chartbook After launching over $33bn into the broadly syndicated US leveraged loan market last week, issuers have continued to jump into the market, with an additional $39.84bn launching so far this week through Wednesday July 16th…. Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a
Middle Market Deal Terms at a Glance
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Beginning in July 2022 The Lead Left published a series of articles on credit market. This report consolidates those articles.
Cov-lite trends Inflation & rising interest rates – LIBOR to SOFR transition Mega-tranche uni trend ESG takes center stage Login to view interactive report and download PDF version. … Subscribe to Read MoreAlready a member? Log in here Related posts: 2H 2021 Midyear Outlook Report State of the Capital Markets – Fourth Quarter 2016 Review and
Beginning in September 2021 The Lead Left published a series of articles on supply chain. This report consolidates those articles.
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